Author(s)

Chenchen Yang ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin, 300134, China

Corresponding Author

Chenchen Yang

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the data of torrential rain and flood disasters in China in recent years, and finds that there is an obvious correlation between the direct economic losses and the death toll caused by the disasters. Firstly, this paper selects six common distributions to fit the marginal distributions of the direct economic losses and the death toll, and determines their optimal types of marginal distributions using the K-S test and the AIC criterion, which are the normal distribution and the lognormal distribution respectively. Next, the optimal copula describing their correlation is the Gumbel copula using the minimum AIC and BIC criteria. Finally we model the joint probability distribution of direct economic losses and the death toll to analyze the joint probability. The study shows that direct economic losses and the death toll are positively correlated.

KEYWORDS

Torrential rain and flood disasters, direct economic losses, the death toll, copula function, joint probability distribution

CITE THIS PAPER

Chenchen Yang, A Copula Model-Based Joint Probability Analysis of Losses in Torrential Rain and Flood Disasters. Population, Resources & Environmental Economics (2023) Vol. 4: 108-115. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/pree.2023.040113.

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