Population Prediction of China Based on ARIMA-LSTM Combined Model
DOI: 10.23977/jsoce.2023.050304 | Downloads: 20 | Views: 481
Author(s)
Gu Minghui 1
Affiliation(s)
1 College of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, China
Corresponding Author
Gu MinghuiABSTRACT
In recent years, the birth rate in China has been declining continuously. Accurate population prediction is of great significance for the government to formulate population macro-adjustment policies. In this paper, the residual optimization method is used to establish the combined prediction model of ARIMA-LSTM. It is found that the precision of combinatorial prediction is better than that of each single prediction, and the combinatorial prediction with residual optimization has better generalization ability. In addition, the forecast results show that China's population will continue to decline in 2023.
KEYWORDS
ARIMA; LSTM; Population grossCITE THIS PAPER
Gu Minghui, Population Prediction of China Based on ARIMA-LSTM Combined Model. Journal of Sociology and Ethnology (2023) Vol. 5: 19-25. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/jsoce.2023.050304.
REFERENCES
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[3] Rayer S, Smith S K, Tayman J. Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts [J]. Springer Open Choice, 2009, 28(6): 773-793.
[4] Mao J H. Combination prediction of birth rate in China based on IOWA operator [J]. Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology (Natural Science Edition), 2018, 19(01):120-124.
[5] Chen L, Mu T, Li X, et al. Population Prediction of Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities Based on Multiple Models [J]. Sustainability, 2022, 14.
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