Author(s)

Yuting Wei ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ School of Finance, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin, 300222, China

Corresponding Author

Yuting Wei

ABSTRACT

Under the background of drastic fluctuations in international commodity prices, the public can search for commodity price information and monetary policy information to quickly adjust personal expectations and behavioral decisions. Therefore, the paper discuss the transmission and mediation effect of international commodity prices on public information acquisition in the process of China's inflation shock. This paper uses Baidu index keywords to construct a search index that measures the public's behavior of acquiring information on commodity prices and monetary policy in China. Using the chain multiple mediation effect model, this paper analyzes the effect of public information acquisition based on network search on the transmission of international commodity prices to China's inflation. The test results show that: there is a "international commodity price→domestic commodity price→commodity information acquisition→monetary policy→Information acquisition→PPI" conduction path. The public information acquisition behavior can alleviate the rise of domestic inflation as a whole, and the higher the information accuracy, the smaller the inflation fluctuation. There are differences in the impact of different regions and different types of commodity price information searches on inflation. Among them, the public's acquisition of energy commodity information mainly affects the PPI, while the agricultural commodity information acquisition has a relatively greater effect on the CPI. Compared with only searching for monetary policy-related information, the intermediary effect of public information acquisition after adding bulk commodity price information search has weakened, indicating that the release of bulk commodity information in China is not sufficient. Therefore, when the regulatory authorities guide public expectations, in addition to increasing the amount of communication and information, more attention should be paid to the possible impact of information on the public during the use and interpretation of information. Based on the above research conclusions, suggestions are put forward to improve the monitoring and early warning mechanism of commodity prices, strengthen traditional energy management, accelerate the development of alternative energy, and formulate commodity strategies.

KEYWORDS

International commodity prices, Inflation, Baidu search index, Chained multiple mediation effects

CITE THIS PAPER

Yuting Wei, The Impact of International Commodity Prices and Public Information Acquisition on China's Inflation: Based on the Chained Multiple Mediation Effect Test. Information Systems and Economics (2022) Vol. 3: 20-43. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/infse.2022.030303.

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