Author(s)

Huan Cheng ¹, Jinmei Ge ¹, Dingrong Liu ¹, Xianfeng Qi ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ Statistical Analysis Center, China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, Beijing, China

Corresponding Author

Huan Cheng

ABSTRACT

This paper studied the influence of COVID-19 on air passenger market in China. Affecting factors were selected from economic recovery, epidemic development and vaccination. Dynamic distribution lag model was established to simulate the influence mechanism. Research results showed that economic recovery and vaccination could significantly promote the recovery of air passenger market. The impact of economic recovery was obviously time lagged. The impact on air passenger market recovery between China and the United States was significantly different. Based on three scenario assumptions of the epidemic development, it was predicted that China's air passenger volume in 2021 would be between 530 and 560 million. The recovery of China's air passenger market in 2021 would be fluctuated by about 5-6 percentage points due to different epidemic situation.

KEYWORDS

epidemic, civil aviation, air passenger, dynamic distributed lag model

CITE THIS PAPER

Huan Cheng, Jinmei Ge, Dingrong Liu, Xianfeng Qi, Influence of Covid-19 on Air Passenger Market in China Based on Dynamic Distributed Lag Model. Industrial Engineering and Innovation Management (2022) Vol. 5: 85-92. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/ieim.2022.050710.

REFERENCES

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