Author(s)

Yixuan Ji ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ College of Energy, Power and Mechanical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei 071000

Corresponding Author

Yixuan Ji

ABSTRACT

Since the outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia in December 2019, all countries in the world have taken preventive and control measures. By the end of April, the epidemic situation in China had been controlled, but the situation abroad was still grim. Based on the current global coronavirus-induced pneumonia epidemic situation, this paper studies the model of infectious diseases and predicts their development trend, and gives reasonable prevention and control suggestions according to their characteristics. According to the prediction of the future development of the virus, we refer to the relevant data of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation, and establish a dynamic model based on the differential equation of the SIER chamber model from the point of view of the transmission infectious diseases. The number of patients diagnosed with latent period disease increased exponentially according to the relevant data, assuming λ and other parameters, and calculating the approximate function of infection rate and cure rate. The differential formula of SIER model is used to deduce the change function of the proportion of all kinds of population with time. By integrating the collected data, we use SPSS fitting to obtain the function expression of infection rate and cure rate, and substitute the improved model equation to solve the problem. Our model is characterized by real-time, intuitive and reliability. In the whole process of analysis and solution, the actual development situation is simulated by numerical fitting of the latest epidemic situation data, and the data processing by drawing line and table is clear and intuitive, which improves the accuracy and testability of the conclusion. Each parameter in the model takes into account the characteristics of 2019- nCoV transmission and the possible phenomena and effects of epidemic situation, so our model is reliable.

KEYWORDS

SIER model, Infectious diseases, Regression analysis of infectious diseases

CITE THIS PAPER

Yixuan Ji. A Study on the Transmission and Control of COVID-19 Epidemic Disease of New Coronavirus Pneumonia. MEDS Clinical Medicine (2021) 2: 42-45. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/medsc.2021.020209

REFERENCES

[1] New Coronary Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Scheme (Trial Version 7) [J] Jiangsu Chinese Medicine, 2020, 52(04): 1-6.
[2] Zhou Tao, Liu Quanhui, Yang Zimo, preliminary prediction of basic regeneration number of et al. new coronavirus pneumonia [J].1 Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine 20(03): 359-64.
[3] Ouyang Fen, Wu Heyu, Yang Ying, et al. to the rapid spread of new coronavirus pneumonia [J].1 General practice Nursing 18(03): 311-2.

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