Author(s)

Donghui Shan ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ Xi'an Fanyi University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China

Corresponding Author

Donghui Shan

ABSTRACT

To address the issues of trade flow fluctuations and inaccurate predictions in port economy caused by complex factors such as seasonal changes and global market fluctuations, big data analysis technology is introduced to improve the accuracy of trade flow forecasting and optimize port resource allocation. Firstly, by using historical trade data and real-time logistics information from 2000 to 2020, a multidimensional data model is constructed to improve data quality through data cleaning and integration. Then, by introducing the random forest algorithm, feature extraction and classification are performed on multidimensional trade data to extract potential flow trends and periodic features. Finally, the prediction results are displayed using the visualization tool Python to assist decision-makers in evaluating the rationality of spatial layout and ensure efficient utilization of resources. Through big data analysis methods, the model successfully captured the factors of trade flow instability caused by seasonal changes and global market fluctuations. After introducing the random forest algorithm, the accuracy of predictions has significantly improved, especially when dealing with short-term fluctuations in trade volume, where the initial prediction error is relatively large. For example, the initial prediction errors for T1 and T4 were 0.08013 and 0.08234, respectively. However, through real-time data updates, the Mean Square Error (MSE) decreased to 0.06344 and 0.07902, respectively. The model also revealed the cyclical flow patterns of major trade routes and identified key peak and trough periods. The application of big data in port economy not only enhances the predictive ability of trade flow, but also provides strong support for optimizing resource allocation, promoting the sustainable development of port economy. 

KEYWORDS

Big Data, Port Economy, Trade Flow Prediction, Implementation Strategy

CITE THIS PAPER

Donghui Shan, Explorition on the Role and Implementation Strategies of Big Data in Predicting Trade Flow in Port Economy. Information Systems and Economics (2024) Vol. 5: 138-147. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/infse.2024.050418.

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