Author(s)

Bin Hong ¹, Qin Wei ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ College of Engineering, Xizang University, Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 850000, China

Corresponding Author

Qin Wei

ABSTRACT

Energy is the foundation of civilization and economic development, closely related to human survival and social stability. The rational use of energy is also the main battlefield for achieving "carbon neutrality" and "carbon peak". Based on the linear regression model, stagnant growth model and time series model, we constructed an energy consumption forecasting model based on population and economic changes. On the basis of analyzing the impact of population and economic changes on energy consumption, the energy consumption is predicted by combining the population size and the forecast value of GDP. The year-end resident population, gross regional product and total energy consumption data of Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2021 are selected for example validation, and the total energy consumption of Sichuan Province from 2022 to 2026 is predicted by using the established energy consumption prediction model based on demographic and economic changes, and the results show that: the population and the economy are positively and negatively correlated with the energy consumption, and the total energy consumption is still in an upward trend. The total energy consumption is still in an upward trend. The results show that population, economy and energy consumption are positively and negatively correlated, respectively, and that total energy consumption is still on the rise.

KEYWORDS

Linear regression; Stagnant growth; Time series; Population and economy; Energy consumption

CITE THIS PAPER

Bin Hong, Qin Wei, Study on the impact of demographic and economic changes on regional energy consumption. Population, Resources & Environmental Economics (2024) Vol. 5: 28-35. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/pree.2024.050105.

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