Author(s)

Jiaxin Yuan

Corresponding Author

Jiaxin Yuan

ABSTRACT

The policy of ‘Transit Metropolis’ has been implemented in China almost ten years, which aims to alleviateurban traffic congestion. In order to evaluate the performance of this policy, this paper constructs an indicator using the HCW method (Hsiao, Ching and Wan), which counts passenger volume per capita. Furtherly, three measurement methods including ‘permutation test method’, ‘time placebo test’ and ‘leave-one-out method’ are adopted to test the robustness of the proposed indicator. The results indicate that this policy has a positive impact on the pilot cities. However, only three cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Nanchang show significant policy effects. The resuts show that the dividend of the current demonstration project policy has not been fully released, and the policies of the free trade pilot zones in various regions urgently need to be optimized furtherly.

KEYWORDS

Transit metropolis, Policy effect evaluation, Panel data, Counterfactual analysis