Author(s)

Boyang Zhang, Yuanhang Ma, Zhengming Zhang

Corresponding Author

Boyang Zhang

ABSTRACT

To study the economic losses of crops and related disaster mitigation measures affected by floods in Northeast China, we used the data of the affected area of crops, the area of crops, and the total agricultural output value of as many as 35 flood events from 2004 to 2019. With the total probability formula, Bayesian basic formula, and the flood return period, the data's probability density function is obtained to analyze the crop disaster risk and economic loss estimation of three provinces in Northeast China. At the same time, by combining the above content with the distribution characteristics of crops in Northeast China and the spatial distribution of flood disaster events, disaster mitigation measures are proposed. With Bayesian and total probability formulas, it is easy to find that the probabilities of crop damage under each level of flood in each province are 0.0041, 0.0272, 0.0555, and 0.0952, respectively. The economic loss can be obtained by using the data of the gross annual value of agricultural output. The probability of failure of crops in Northeast China is 0.0197422. It can be predicted that the economic loss of crops in the three northeastern provinces in 2023 will be 16.57468 billion yuan.

KEYWORDS

Crops, flood disaster, Northeast China, prediction, disaster mitigation measure