Author(s)

Xusen Shi

Corresponding Author

Xusen Shi

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this paper is to find the pattern of the number of births of American Samoa against time and make a prediction of the number of births of American Samoa in the next few years to see will the number of births in the future be steady. Samoa is an unorganized American territory that has over 1000 years of history. In this project, a model of the number of births is created depending on the data set of the number of births in the past 25 years. The model is created for pattern and prediction. A SIMA model is fitted, and forecasting is done. The article finds that the number of births in the future will be steady. There will not be a sharp increase or decrease in the number of births.

KEYWORDS

American Samoa, SIMA model, prediction, birth rate