Author(s)

Yutan Wu, Ruolan Zhang, Mingxuan Niu, Haoyu Tang

Corresponding Author

Yutan Wu

ABSTRACT

Wheat is rich in elements, and its demand market is huge. Studying the factors affecting wheat output is of great significance to the stable development of the wheat industry. This article firstly analyzes the factors affecting wheat output from three aspects: technical factors, planting growth factors, economic and social factors .Eleven relevant indicators from 2000 to 2019 are selected to establish an AHP model and calculate the weights of each indicator and rank them. Secondly, the fuel ethanol output, corn output, soybean output are introduced, and the data from 2005 to 2019 are used for Granger causality analysis. According to the results of empirical analysis, it is concluded that the most important factors affecting wheat output are the sown area over the years and rural electricity consumption in the planting growth factors. Fuel ethanol output and corn output also have an impact on wheat output. Adjust measures to local conditions, protect the environment, increase innovation, introduce talents and technologies, and transform agricultural scientific research results into reality，deepen the reform of the agricultural supply side, increase the fuel ethanol output, and stabilize the corn output, these are currently the main development direction to improve wheat planting efficiency and increase output.

KEYWORDS

Factors influencing wheat output, AHP, Granger causality analysis