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Analysis of Economic Forecast Trend Based on ARIMA method

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DOI: 10.23977/ferm.2021.040206 | Downloads: 4 | Views: 278

Author(s)

Xinyu Guan 1, Qingchen Ma 2, Jiacheng Sun 3

Affiliation(s)

1 College of Computer Science and Engineering, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong, 266510
2 School of Mathematics and Systems Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Binzhou, Shandong, 256200
3 School of Mathematics and Systems Science, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong, 256400

Corresponding Author

Xinyu Guan

ABSTRACT

Based on the import and export trade, this paper collects a large number of policies and related data about the two candidates in recent years, including the import amount of the United States, the export value of the United States, the gross industrial product, the employment rate and other official information, as well as the import and export trade volume of China GDP. Using relevant data to quantitatively analyze the possible impact of election of different candidates on the economy. American future economic analysis model. The principal component analysis method is used to deal with many data such as unemployment rate, employment number, total import and export amount, government revenue and so on. The main influencing components are analyzed and summarized, and the changes of American economy on different time nodes are analyzed based on this. The quadratic curve fitting is used to evaluate the economic impact of different policies on the United States, and the ARIMA prediction model is used to predict the possible impact of different candidates on the United States economy.

KEYWORDS

Principal component analysis, ARIMA, economy

CITE THIS PAPER

Xinyu Guan, Analysis of Economic Forecast Trend Based on ARIMA method. Financial Engineering and Risk Management (2021) 4: 26-31. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/ferm.2021.040206

REFERENCES

[1] The SPSSAU project (2020). SPSSAU. (Version 20.0) [Online A pplication Software]. Retrieved from https://www.spssau.com. Mingyuan Gu.Education Dictionary [M]. Shanghai :Shanghai Education Press, 1998; 
[2] Xian Meng,The Unbalance and Adjustment of Sino-US Economic Relations “People's Forum” 2017 03 
[3] Guannan Wang, Research on Economic Interdependence and Asymmetric Between China and the United States “Jilin University” 2016

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