Author(s)

GUO Aixin ¹, ZHAO Jinbao ¹, ZHAO Xinhao ¹, ZHOU Meng ¹, KONG Weichao ¹, ZHOU Tianwei ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ School of Transportation and Vehicle Engineering, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo, Shandong 255000, China

Corresponding Author

GUO Aixin

ABSTRACT

By obtaining the panel data of 16prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2018 for 14 years, this paper selects Shandong highway mileage as the core explanatory variable, GDP as the explained variable, urbanization rate, passenger volume, freight volume, government participation and fixed capital investment level as other explanatory variables, and adds economic lag effect on this basis. The fixed effect model or random effect model is tested according to the modified Hausman test. In order to make the results more accurate and reliable, the data are tested and corrected by inter-group heteroscedasticity, intra-group autocorrelation, cross-sectional correlation and multiple collinearity, and the spatial effect of Shandong economy is tested by Moran index. In-depth verification of the impact of highway construction on the economy of Shandong Province. The results show that the random effect model has passed the Hausman test. The revised model shows that highway construction has a positive effect on the overall economy of Shandong Province, and other explanatory variables also have varying degrees of pulling effect on the economy, but the spatial effect of economy is not significant, which provides a reference basis and example verification for highway construction in the future. To better promote the close ties between the regions of Shandong Province and make contributions to economic development.

KEYWORDS

Highways; Economic development; fixed effect model; random effect model; Panel data

CITE THIS PAPER

GUO Aixin, ZHAO Jinbao, ZHAO Xinhao, ZHOU Meng, KONG Weichao, ZHOU Tianwei. Research on the Economic Impact of Shandong Expressway Development. Urban Transport Systems (2021) 2: 1-9. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/uts.2021.020101

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