Author(s)

Boxuan Liu ¹

Affiliation(s)

¹ School of Humanities and Social Science, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, 071003, Hebei, China

Corresponding Author

Boxuan Liu

ABSTRACT

The expansion of the carbon market serves as a critical component in China's efforts to achieve its "dual carbon" goals and strengthen its environmental governance framework. Following the launch of the national carbon market in 2025, its scope was expanded for the first time to include the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries. By 2027, the market is expected to cover virtually all major industrial emitters. The allowance benchmark coefficient, serving as the primary reference standard for quota allocation, plays a decisive role in determining the market's emission reduction effectiveness and fairness. Given the significant variations in carbon emissions across industries and enterprises, the traditional fixed benchmark coefficient can no longer meet the joint decarbonization requirements of multiple sectors. Building on multi-agent evolutionary theory, this study models the interactions and evolution processes among three agents—government, high-energy-consuming enterprises, and low-carbon enterprises. Utilizing real-world carbon market data, we refine the allowance benchmark coefficient calculation methodology and propose flexible adjustment measures tailored for expanded markets. Data analysis demonstrates the effectiveness and advantages of this approach, providing actionable insights for rational quota allocation post-expansion and fostering the healthy development of the carbon market.

KEYWORDS

Carbon market expansion; Multi-agent evolution; Quota benchmark coefficient; Mechanism design; Emission reduction coordination

CITE THIS PAPER

Boxuan Liu. Optimization of Quota Benchmark Coefficient and Mechanism Design Based on Multi-Agent Evolution under the Background of Carbon Market Expansion. Environment, Resource and Ecology Journal (2026). Vol. 10, No.1, 62-67. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.23977/erej.2026.100108.

REFERENCES

[1] Liu Zhaoyu. Definition of the Financial Attributes and Value Transformation Path of Carbon Quotas for Energy Enterprises under the Expansion of the National Carbon Market [J]. China Financial Knowledge Warehouse, 2025,20(03):47-49.
[2] Wang Ke. Opportunities and Challenges of Carbon Market Expansion Driven by the New Round of NDC Total Target [J]. China Electric Power Enterprise Management, 2026, (04):46-48.
[3] Wang Bo, Zhang Jiayuan, Yan Xiaoqing, Chen Haitao, Liu Guangchuan. Research on Government Regulation and the Blockage Effect of Corporate Emission Reduction under Carbon Market Expansion [J]. Coal Economic Research, 2026,46(01):100–109.
[4] Zhou Dan. China's carbon market expansion accelerates, with its coverage continuing to expand [J]. China & Foreign Energy, 2025,30(10):82.
[5] Zhang Bingbing, Yu Lan, Cai Hongbo. Assessment of the "buffer valve" effect of carbon tariff shocks on China's carbon market expansion and price increases [J]. China Industrial Economics, 2025, (09):5-22.

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